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Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
83%
19
17 comments
17
Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?
77%
20
24 comments
24
AGI Outcomes
How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?
6.97k
10
10 comments
10
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?
1%
21
30 comments
30
AGI Outcomes
How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?
14.4k
6
5 comments
5
Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round
Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?
66%
17
9 comments
9
AGI Outcomes
Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?
70%
4
6 comments
6
AI safety and timelines
8
2 comments
2
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research
10
7 comments
7
AI Progress Essay Contest
The Westinghouse Contingency
3
5 comments
5
AI Progress Essay Contest
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