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Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%chance

How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?

result33.926M

Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

76%chance

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?

result260

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

7121

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?

result560

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

1%chance

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?

result1211

How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

14.5k
e-prints

Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?

66%chance