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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will the Universe end?

66%chance

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

0.3%chance

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

Key Factor

Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.

25%chance

Key Factor

Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%chance

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

24 Feb 2028

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

1%chance

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.2%chance

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

97%chance

How much global warming by 2100?

3.11 °C

Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?

12%chance