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Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?

resultYes

Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?

resultYes

How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?

5.35
labs

Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?

10%chance
condition

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?

12 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

16 Feb 2030

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

15 Feb 2030
7
no comments0

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

resultYes
condition

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved:Yes
9 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

19 Apr 2026

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

23 Nov 2025
Resolved:Annulled
4
no comments0