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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?

Ambiguous

Will GiveWell recommend 1 or more grants to support breastfeeding promotion or denote it a "top charity" before 2027?

43%chance

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7%chance

Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?

resultYes
condition

US Hyperinflation Before 2050

9 forecasters
if yes
if no

10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

17%
17%

10% agricul. drop leading to >400M fatalities

11%
11%
1
no comments0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project