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Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

60%chance

Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?

resultNo

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

1.7×10¹⁷
FLOPS

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

09 Dec 2026

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

82%chance

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.34
years

As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?

resultJun 2030

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Apr 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?

Annulled

When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?

Ambiguous