• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
🤖
Q2 AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?

result29.2507M

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?

58%chance

Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?

Ambiguous

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

30%chance

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%
≤3 nm90%
≤2 nm50%

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20.6%
Amazon Web Services15.5%
Microsoft Azure15%
and 1 other

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

Google5%
AMD5%
Nvidia3%

How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024?