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When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?

31 Aug 2025

Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?

resultYes

Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?

resultNo

Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?

resultNo

Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?

resultYes
condition

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

Resolved:Yes
11 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

1%
1%
Resolved:No

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

5%
5%
Resolved:Annulled
1
no comments0
Conditional Cup

Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?

resultYes

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

Yes, still owned by foreign adversary47.8%
Yes, non-adversary owner42.4%
No9.8%