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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?

resultNo

Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?

resultNo
condition

Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024

Resolved:No
25 forecasters
if yes
if no

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

2%
2%
Resolved:Annulled

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

1%
1%
Resolved:No
5
no comments0

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

20352%
20301%

Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?

resultYes

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

10%chance
condition

U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?

10 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China war before 2035?

15%
15%

US-China war before 2035?

9%
9%
2
no comments0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition

US SLCM 2030

Resolved:Yes
6 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China war before 2035?

10%
10%

US-China war before 2035?

4%
4%
Resolved:Annulled
1
no comments0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition

China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?

11 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

20%
20%

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)

36%
36%
1
3 comments3
The Taiwan Tinderbox