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Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?

resultNo

Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?

resultNo

Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?

resultMore than 01 Jan 2024 00:00

Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

> 50 km^2Ambiguous
< 50 km^2result: No

On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?

resultNo

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

99%chance
condition

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)

Resolved:Yes
40 forecasters
if yes
if no

Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?

90%
90%

Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?

73%
73%
Resolved:Annulled
5
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