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The Westinghouse Contingency

3
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

When will OpenAI next update its approach to alignment research?

result24 Feb 2023 12:00

What will Sam Altman's net worth be in January 2030?

24 B$

Will GPT-4 input and/or output images?

Input Yes, Output Noresult: Yes
Input No, Output Noresult: No
Input No, Output Yesresult: No
and 1 other

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
and 2 others

Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?

resultNo

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

9.9%chance

Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?

resultYes

Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?

resultNo