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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

20%chance

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

Key Factor

Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.

20%chance

Key Factor

Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.

condition

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?

Resolved:No
43 forecasters
if yes
if no

Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?

24%
24%
Resolved:Annulled

Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?

19%
19%
13
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