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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%chance

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated?

resultNo

Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?

resultNo

Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

4%chance

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

5.7
paths

How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?

result64.128269M

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

19%chance

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

4.16
years

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1376
hours