• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
🤖
Q2 AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Nuclear proliferation, force sizes, & yields

6
6 comments6
Nuclear Risk Tournament

Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?

resultNo

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

2%chance

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

1%chance

When will total worldwide nuclear disarmament occur?

2201

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

51%chance