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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?

52%chance

Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

42%chance

Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?

resultNo

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

177k
humans

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

10%chance

When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?

result02 Oct 2023 03:45

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

29.9
months

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

Jun 2039

Will transformative AI come with a bang?

13
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

resultYes