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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017?

resultNo

To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?

resultNo

Are we in a simulated reality? Part I

resultNo

Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature?

resultNo

Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?

resultNo

Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?

35%chance

How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate?

2result: Yes
1result: No
1.5result: No
and 2 others

How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate?

2result: No
3result: Yes
1result: No
and 1 other

Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?

resultYes

When will the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse?

Oct 2053