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Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?

resultNo

Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?

resultYes

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

Key Factor

Donald Trump has stated that abortion policy should be set by the states, and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has expressed opposition to a national abortion ban.

15%chance

Key Factor

Donald Trump has stated that abortion policy should be set by the states, and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has expressed opposition to a national abortion ban.

If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?

Texas50%
California35%
Florida20%
and 47 others