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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?

27%chance
condition

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?

Resolved:No
140 forecasters
if yes
if no

US Iran War Before 2025?

15%
15%
Resolved:Annulled

US Iran War Before 2025?

2%
2%
Resolved:No
13
5 comments5
Conditional Cup
condition

US Iran War Before 2025?

Resolved:No
48 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

45%
45%
Resolved:Annulled

Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)

20%
20%
5
1 comment1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
condition

Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?

Resolved:No
28 forecasters
if yes
if no

US Iran War Before 2025?

0%
0%
Resolved:Annulled

US Iran War Before 2025?

0%
0%
Resolved:No
2
no comments0
Conditional Cup
condition

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024?

Resolved:No
30 forecasters
if yes
if no

US Iran War Before 2025?

8%
8%
Resolved:Annulled

US Iran War Before 2025?

1%
1%
Resolved:No
6
2 comments2
Conditional Cup