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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.2%chance

When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD?

2075

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

21%chance

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

4%chance

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%chance

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

May 2044

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8
condition

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

96 forecasters
if yes
if no

Human Extinction by 2100

1%
1%

Human Extinction by 2100

5%
5%
14
11 comments11
AI Safety