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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?

resultNo

When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?

31 Aug 2025

Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?

resultNo

Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?

resultYes
condition

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

Resolved:Yes
11 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

1%
1%
Resolved:No

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

5%
5%
Resolved:Annulled
1
no comments0
Conditional Cup

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

Yes, still owned by foreign adversary47.8%
Yes, non-adversary owner42.4%
No9.8%