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When will an AI pass the laugh test?

02 Dec 2025

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%chance

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

99%chance

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

26%chance

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

93%chance

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

90%chance

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

97%chance

In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?

resultNo

When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?

result13 May 2024