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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?

resultNo

Will a major network call the election prematurely?

resultNo

Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?

resultNo

Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?

resultNo

Will elective abortion be banned nationally in the United States before 2030?

Key Factor

Donald Trump has stated that abortion policy should be set by the states, and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has expressed opposition to a national abortion ban.

15%chance

Key Factor

Donald Trump has stated that abortion policy should be set by the states, and his vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has expressed opposition to a national abortion ban.

condition

2024 US election considered fraudulent?

Resolved:No
18 forecasters
if yes
if no

Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

55%
55%
Resolved:Annulled

Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

25%
25%
4
4 comments4
condition

2024 US election considered fraudulent?

Resolved:No
16 forecasters
if yes
if no

Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?

51%
51%
Resolved:Annulled

Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?

45%
45%
Resolved:No
1 comment1
Conditional Cup