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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?

resultNo

Will Evergrande default on its debt before the end of 2021?

resultYes

Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?

resultYes

Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?

resultNo

Will the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating be downgraded below an A grade by 1 January 2030?

30%chance

Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?

resultNo

Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?

resultNo

Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?

resultYes
condition

U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?

Resolved:No
69 forecasters
if yes
if no

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

55%
55%
Resolved:Annulled

Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

53%
53%
Resolved:No
10
5 comments5
condition

Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023?

Resolved:Yes
13 forecasters
if yes
if no

U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?

7%
7%
Resolved:No

U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?

62%
62%
Resolved:Annulled
4
1 comment1