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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Article 50 triggered by UK by end of March 2017?

resultYes

Will the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement be rejected?

Ambiguous

When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?

Oct 2038

Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?

resultNo

Will Hungary leave the EU before 2030?

5%chance

Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?

resultNo

Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?

EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
Greens–EFAresult: No
and 4 others

What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?

result189.39

Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?

resultYes
condition

New PHEIC in 2024?

Resolved:Yes
20 forecasters
if yes
if no

International Pandemic Treaty before 2025

3%
3%
Resolved:No

International Pandemic Treaty before 2025

1%
1%
Resolved:Annulled
1
2 comments2
Conditional Cup