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Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?

resultYes

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

3%chance

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

80%chance

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

62%chance

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

43%chance

Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?

resultYes

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >15% weight loss?

result08 Nov 2023 12:00

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?

07 Dec 2028

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%chance

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?

resultNo