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Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?

resultNo

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

22%chance

Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?

21%chance

Key Factor

All five geographical regions defined by SIPRI saw rises in military spending for the first time since 2009, with Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania recording particularly large increases.

In 2029, will the US have 3,800 or fewer nuclear weapons?

58%chance

If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?

4777

warheads

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

23%chance

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

89%chance

Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?

resultNo

How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?

10.4k

weapons

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

2048