• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
🤖
Q2 AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?

resultNo

Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?

resultNo

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

resultYes

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

result28 May 2024 12:00
condition

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved:Yes
9 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

19 Apr 2026

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

23 Nov 2025
Resolved:Annulled
4
no comments0

Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?

resultNo

Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?

resultYes
condition

US TikTok ban or forced sale?

Resolved:Yes
11 forecasters
if yes
if no

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

1%
1%
Resolved:No

US-China AI Treaty? (2025)

5%
5%
Resolved:Annulled
1
no comments0
Conditional Cup

Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?

resultYes

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

Yes, still owned by foreign adversary47.8%
Yes, non-adversary owner42.4%
No9.8%