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When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?

09 Jan 2025

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?

98%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?

82%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

82%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that India's average fertility rate for 2032 & 2033 will be < 2.0?

95%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the college enrollment rate will be greater than 26.6% in 2025?

98%chance

Will Aidan Caplan win his bet that the Supreme Court will not be packed as of July 4, 2028?

96%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?

80%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

84%chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

1%chance