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Announcing the Winners of the Q1 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

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1 comment1
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Contribute to the Metaculus Cup

5
7 comments7
Metaculus Cup

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk tweet (X post) about the Diversity Visa before July 1, 2025

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

10%chance

Will Ralph Norman declare his candidacy for the US Senate race in South Carolina before July 1, 2025?

Annulled

Will there be greater than 31 direct flight destinations from Erbil, Iraq on July 1, 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

60%chance

Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 400 for June 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

30%chance

How many measures will be passed by the US Congress in June 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting.
Latest Community predictions were:

3 or 436.1%
1 or 233.5%
5 or 618.1%
and 2 others

How many of the 822 "critical" leadership roles in the executive branch will have been confirmed at the beginning of July 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting.
Latest Community predictions were:

80-8932.5%
90-9925.5%
68-7923.1%
and 2 others

Which agency will Doge's Agency Efficiency Leaderboard have ranked #1 in Most Total Savings on July 1, 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting.
Latest Community predictions were:

Department of Health and Human Services48.5%
General Services Administration21.6%
Department of Education17.7%
and 1 other

Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

66%chance