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Horizon Scan: How many people will be forcibly displaced in these countries in 2022?

Sudanresult: 4.476311M
Azerbaijanresult: 706.532k
Sri Lankaresult: 171.791k
and 4 others

When will the Armenia–Turkey border reopen?

06 Feb 2026

Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?

Syria81%
Haiti70%
Mali61%
and 70 others

Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?

Montenegro96%
North Macedonia87%
Albania82.5%
and 17 others

Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World

2
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?

resultNo

Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?

resultYes

Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates?

Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

20%chance

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

9
9 comments9
Metaculus Journal Archives