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When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

22 Jan 2028

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

68%chance

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

80%chance

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

Naura31%
SMEE29%
AMEC28%
and 1 other

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

87%chance
condition

Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033?

9 forecasters
if yes
if no

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

75%
75%

Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?

50%
50%
1
2 comments2