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Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

resultNo

What will be the combined annual revenue of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?

Annulled

What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?

resultLess than 700

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

resultYes

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

result28 May 2024 12:00
condition

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved:Yes
9 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

19 Apr 2026

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

23 Nov 2025
Resolved:Annulled
4
no comments0

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%chance

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

resultYes

Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?

resultYes

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?