Question

Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?

Resolved :No

47 comments47

Total Forecasters440

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

59.6

Community Peer Score

34.9

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Verity

Geopolitics

United States Intelligence Community

United States

Jake Williams

Russia

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

10%

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

48%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Ukraine Conflict

Verity

Geopolitics

United States Intelligence Community

United States

Jake Williams

Russia

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

10%

Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

48%