Question

What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?

Resolved:16

7 comments7

Total Forecasters58

Community Prediction

15.7

(9.39 - >16)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<1	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>16
community	2.1%	9.389	15.71	>16	36.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<1	2.1%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	9.389	—
median	15.71	—
upper 75%	>16	—
Upper bound
>16	36.6%	—

What was the final result?16

Community Baseline Score

72.3

Community Peer Score

190.5

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Mar 1, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

May 7, 2022

China and Global Cooperation

Geopolitics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

80,000 Hours

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

5.7

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

85%