Question

Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?

Resolved :No

31 comments31

Total Forecasters200

Community Prediction1%

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50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

79.5

Community Peer Score

14.6

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Verity

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027? → Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NathanpmYoung

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Verity

Geopolitics

Russo-Ukrainian War

Ukraine–NATO relations

Putin warns NATO will be ‘at war with Russia’ if it allows Ukraine to use Western long-range missiles against it

CNN•Sep 13, 2024

Russia-Ukraine war: Putin orders Russia to boost size of army

CNN•Sep 16, 2024

Russia-Ukraine War Passes Grim Milestone

Newsweek•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%