Question
When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?
Total Forecasters13
Community Prediction
Aug 2052
(Sep 2033 - 2076)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Sep 2033 | — |
| median | Aug 2052 | — |
| upper 75% | 2076 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2100 | 16.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2102
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2102
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2022