Question

Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018?

Resolved :No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters86

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

89.3

Community Peer Score

8.9

median 1.0%mean 5.1%

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?

51%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Comments

? comments