Question

Will a space elevator successfully be built on Earth before 2100?

34 comments34

Total Forecasters332

Community Prediction9%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 9.1%

median 9.1%mean 14.6%

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Outline of space science

Space elevator

Technology

NASA

Aerospace engineering

SpaceX

Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

58%

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?

17%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamKosloff

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Economy & Business

Technology

Outline of space science

Space elevator

Technology

NASA

Aerospace engineering

SpaceX

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

58%

Will SpinLaunch lift a satellite to low Earth orbit by 2032?

17%