Question
When will the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf Collapse?
Total Forecasters15
Community Prediction
03 May 2027
(11 Jan 2026 - 27 Apr 2029)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 11 Jan 2026 | — |
| median | 03 May 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 27 Apr 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2031 | 9.9% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 2, 2022
Closes:Mar 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 29, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 4, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jan 2, 2022
Closes:Mar 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 29, 2032
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 4, 2022