Question
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
Total Forecasters320
Community Prediction
29.9 months
(8.15 months - 120 months)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.033 | 1.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 8.151 | — |
| median | 29.87 | — |
| upper 75% | 120 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >600 | 12.1% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2150
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2150
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2021