Question

Will Ireland's referendum to repeal the Eighth Amendment pass?

Resolved :Yes

4 comments4

Total Forecasters60

Community Prediction75%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

59.3

Community Peer Score

1.4

median 75.0%mean 75.1%

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Politics

Ireland

Eighth Amendment of the Constitution of Ireland

Referendum

Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?

20%

Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?

24%

Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland before 2031?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Politics

Ireland

Eighth Amendment of the Constitution of Ireland

Referendum

Here’s Where Abortion Is On The Ballot This November

Daily Wire•Sep 13, 2024

Report: Florida’s Six-Week Ban Caused the Number of Abortions to Plummet

Mother Jones•Sep 13, 2024

How a ballot initiative in Missouri is setting up another red-state test for abortion rights

Independent•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?

20%

Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?

24%

Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland before 2031?

55%