Question

Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?

Resolved :Yes

57 comments57

Total Forecasters140

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-14.1

Community Peer Score

6.6

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Politics

Conservative Party (UK)

United Kingdom

Leader of the Conservative Party (UK)

Liz Truss

Near clean sweep for Labour MPs in parliament select committee elections

Guardian•Sep 12, 2024

'Attempt to Subvert Democracy': UK Leaders Decry Appalling Trump Attack

Breitbart•Sep 17, 2024

Reform voters are ‘our people’, insists Badenoch

Spectator (UK)•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Politics

Conservative Party (UK)

United Kingdom

Leader of the Conservative Party (UK)

Liz Truss

Near clean sweep for Labour MPs in parliament select committee elections

Guardian•Sep 12, 2024

'Attempt to Subvert Democracy': UK Leaders Decry Appalling Trump Attack

Breitbart•Sep 17, 2024

Reform voters are ‘our people’, insists Badenoch

Spectator (UK)•Sep 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

20%

MetaculusM

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Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Comments

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?