Question

Will the US President’s ability to deploy military force be further restricted by 2030?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction

25%

(15% - 25.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Nov 22, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 22, 2021

Authorization for Use of Military Force

War Powers Resolution

US Congress

United States

Foreign policy of the Barack Obama administration

Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?

95%

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

15%

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Nov 22, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 22, 2021

Authorization for Use of Military Force

War Powers Resolution

US Congress

United States

Foreign policy of the Barack Obama administration

Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?

95%

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

15%

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%