Question

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

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Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction
20%
(10% - 29%)

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50%
community: 20%
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Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:Nov 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2049
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 20, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Plowshares movement