Question

What fraction of offensive nuclear detonations will be in the Southern Hemisphere, if more than 50 detonations happen globally by 2050?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction

0.021%

(0.00769% - 0.0608%)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	0.007691%	0.02101%	0.06082%
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	0.007691%	—
median	0.02101%	—
upper 75%	0.06082%	—

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.456

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.456

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%