Question

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

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Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction67%

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50%

community: 67%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United Kingdom

India

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

United States

Israel

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United Kingdom

India

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Pakistan

France

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

United States

Israel

America Should Avoid, Not Fight, Future Nuclear Wars

American Conservative•Sep 12, 2024

Key takeaways from AP’s examination of South Korea’s split views on North Korea’s nuclear threats

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2024

Harris, Trump & the Race to Oblivion

Consortium News•Sep 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%