Question

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters116

Community Prediction

11%

(7% - 28%)

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50%

community: 11%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a China-India war by 2035?

15%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will there be a China-India war by 2035?

15%