Question
When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?
Total Forecasters15
Community Prediction
07 Dec 2028
(05 Oct 2026 - Sep 2031)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 05 Oct 2026 | — |
| median | 07 Dec 2028 | — |
| upper 75% | Sep 2031 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2050 | 1.9% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 24, 2021
Closes:Feb 1, 2034
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 26, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Nov 24, 2021
Closes:Feb 1, 2034
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 26, 2021