Question

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction34%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 34%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

40%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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Antibiotic resistance forecast to kill 39 million people by 2050

New Scientist•Sep 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

40%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%