Question

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

109 comments109

Total Forecasters348

Community Prediction3%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

United States Intelligence Community

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

23%

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

4.77

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

United States Intelligence Community

New analysis of samples from Wuhan animal market supports its role as a central site of early spread of Covid-19

CNN•Sep 19, 2024

Scientists Shed Light on Wildlife Species at Origin of COVID-19 in Wuhan

Newsweek•Sep 19, 2024

New research points to raccoon dogs in Wuhan market as pandemic trigger. It's controversial

NPR Online News•Sep 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

23%

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

4.77