Question

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

4
4
Total Forecasters54
Community Prediction
75%
(72% - 86%)

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community: 75%
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Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2034
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Soviet Union
China
United Kingdom
India
Japan
Pakistan
Iran
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
France
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction